Ambush!
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 41 (34 on the archive and 7 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Bulgarian): 16
Defender wins (Partisan): 23
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Bulgarian): 1
Defender wins (Partisan): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1031 | 1015 | 52% | 2026-01-16 | Won |
| 1036 | 1010 | 54% | 2022-08-10 | Won |
| 1066 | 1051 | 52% | 2021-06-21 | Won |
| 1066 | 1051 | 52% | 2021-06-20 | Won |
| 1049 | 1052 | 50% | 2020-06-28 | Lost |
| 1032 | 1010 | 53% | 2018-06-21 | Won |
| 951 | 1002 | 43% | 2017-10-06 | Lost |
| 846 | 981 | 31% | 2016-11-12 | Lost |
| 846 | 981 | 31% | 2016-11-12 | Lost |
| 1080 | 1051 | 54% | 2016-09-18 | Lost |
| 948 | 983 | 45% | 2015-04-16 | Won |
| 1040 | 923 | 66% | 2014-11-28 | Won |
| 942 | 1107 | 28% | 2014-06-18 | Won |
| 1233 | 999 | 79% | 2014-05-25 | Won |
| 1090 | 829 | 82% | 2013-11-26 | Won |
| 983 | 980 | 50% | 2013-05-22 | Won |
| 959 | 1141 | 26% | 2011-11-10 | Won |
| 983 | 1146 | 28% | 2010-03-27 | Won |
| 906 | 976 | 40% | 2009-10-16 | Lost |
| 1146 | 988 | 71% | 2009-08-25 | Lost |
| 957 | 1156 | 24% | 2008-07-18 | Lost |
| 1209 | 1048 | 72% | 2006-02-05 | Lost |
| 1101 | 1095 | 51% | 2006-01-24 | Won |
| 891 | 1175 | 16% | 2005-01-19 | Lost |
| 1048 | 1113 | 41% | 2004-10-17 | Won |
| 1015 | 1031 | 48% | 2004-02-27 | Lost |
| 1019 | 1058 | 44% | 2004-01-29 | Won |
| 1035 | 1102 | 40% | 2001-09-25 | Lost |
| 1060 | 989 | 60% | 1999-05-23 | Tied |
| 943 | 1084 | 31% | 1998-01-17 | Lost |
| 867 | 1094 | 21% | 1997-03-29 | Won |
| 1118 | 1076 | 56% | 1995-08-10 | Lost |
| 984 | 952 | 55% | 1991-04-17 | Lost |
| 1079 | 1079 | 50% | | Lost |
Attacking (17 wins) average ELOs: 1016.4 vs 1039.1 has a 46.75% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).