Under the Noel Trees
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 493 (71 on the archive and 422 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 254
Defender wins (American): 239
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1002 | 1002 | 50% | 2024-12-20 | Lost |
| 966 | 1030 | 41% | 2024-01-13 | Won |
| 1110 | 1111 | 50% | 2023-05-01 | Won |
| 1041 | 985 | 58% | 2022-01-14 | Won |
| 986 | 1049 | 41% | 2022-01-10 | Won |
| 1029 | 1082 | 42% | 2022-01-10 | Won |
| 1029 | 1082 | 42% | 2021-12-30 | Lost |
| 986 | 1049 | 41% | 2021-12-29 | Won |
| 986 | 1049 | 41% | 2021-12-29 | Lost |
| 1053 | 951 | 64% | 2021-12-29 | Won |
| 1053 | 951 | 64% | 2021-12-29 | Won |
| 1029 | 1082 | 42% | 2021-12-28 | Won |
| 893 | 962 | 40% | 2021-12-18 | Lost |
| 908 | 1061 | 29% | 2021-05-21 | Lost |
| 1092 | 1209 | 34% | 2021-02-06 | Lost |
| 951 | 1009 | 42% | 2020-12-29 | Won |
| 951 | 1053 | 36% | 2020-12-27 | Lost |
| 951 | 1053 | 36% | 2020-12-27 | Lost |
| 1080 | 1009 | 60% | 2020-12-21 | Won |
| 1100 | 1075 | 54% | 2019-03-01 | Won |
| 1339 | 998 | 88% | 2019-01-29 | Lost |
| 949 | 903 | 57% | 2018-02-14 | Won |
| 1005 | 1054 | 43% | 2018-02-10 | Lost |
| 1002 | 1042 | 44% | 2017-05-28 | Won |
| 1036 | 986 | 57% | 2016-12-22 | Lost |
| 986 | 851 | 69% | 2016-11-13 | Won |
| 986 | 851 | 69% | 2016-11-13 | Won |
| 896 | 914 | 47% | 2016-10-14 | Won |
| 1145 | 1094 | 57% | 2016-08-01 | Lost |
| 987 | 953 | 55% | 2016-03-29 | Won |
| 1182 | 1082 | 64% | 2016-03-14 | Won |
| 956 | 959 | 50% | 2016-03-12 | Won |
| 1063 | 1101 | 45% | 2016-03-12 | Lost |
| 938 | 1195 | 19% | 2015-09-21 | Lost |
| 849 | 956 | 35% | 2015-06-27 | Won |
| 955 | 1182 | 21% | 2015-06-23 | Won |
| 1140 | 1103 | 55% | 2015-05-04 | Won |
| 998 | 1024 | 46% | 2012-12-01 | Won |
| 998 | 1025 | 46% | 2012-12-01 | Lost |
| 901 | 951 | 43% | 2012-10-04 | Won |
| 1075 | 983 | 63% | 2012-09-16 | Lost |
| 1066 | 917 | 70% | 2012-04-02 | Won |
| 1137 | 1140 | 50% | 2012-01-25 | Lost |
| 919 | 976 | 42% | 2011-01-01 | Lost |
| 1197 | 1037 | 72% | 2010-12-04 | Won |
| 1023 | 1011 | 52% | 2010-11-12 | Lost |
| 1069 | 1039 | 54% | 2010-03-12 | Lost |
| 1087 | 1036 | 57% | 2009-10-09 | Won |
| 913 | 1149 | 20% | 2009-09-13 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1149 | 41% | 2009-09-10 | Won |
| 1138 | 919 | 78% | 2009-07-09 | Lost |
| 1125 | 967 | 71% | 2009-06-08 | Won |
| 1128 | 1034 | 63% | 2008-06-15 | Lost |
| 934 | 920 | 52% | 2008-04-18 | Won |
| 901 | 1010 | 35% | 2008-03-20 | Lost |
| 920 | 1205 | 16% | 2008-02-16 | Lost |
| 1015 | 1197 | 26% | 2007-11-18 | Won |
| 1070 | 890 | 74% | 2007-09-30 | Won |
| 1402 | 1303 | 64% | 2007-06-06 | Lost |
| 1051 | 1303 | 19% | 2007-06-06 | Lost |
| 976 | 862 | 66% | 2007-01-13 | Won |
| 1069 | 1043 | 54% | 2006-01-14 | Won |
| 1046 | 1046 | 50% | 2005-12-20 | Lost |
| 1223 | 1007 | 78% | 2004-11-19 | Won |
| 1086 | 1099 | 48% | 2004-10-31 | Lost |
| 929 | 986 | 42% | 2002-01-19 | Won |
| 920 | 1098 | 26% | 2000-04-29 | Won |
| 976 | 1148 | 27% | 1999-11-30 | Lost |
| 940 | 1023 | 38% | 1997-12-25 | Won |
| 1014 | 1228 | 23% | 1996-11-15 | Won |
| 911 | 1164 | 19% | 1993-03-12 | Won |
Attacking (41 wins) average ELOs: 1026.1 vs 1041.8 has a 47.75% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).