The Commissar's House
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 395 (70 on the archive and 325 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 201
Defender wins (Russian): 194
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1019 | 991 | 54% | 2024-08-19 | Won |
| 1019 | 991 | 54% | 2024-08-04 | Lost |
| 979 | 748 | 79% | 2024-06-28 | Won |
| 1042 | 1241 | 24% | 2024-04-07 | Lost |
| 1142 | 991 | 70% | 2023-12-30 | Lost |
| 971 | 1209 | 20% | 2023-08-14 | Lost |
| 991 | 1008 | 48% | 2022-10-16 | Lost |
| 913 | 965 | 43% | 2022-09-28 | Won |
| 1168 | 991 | 73% | 2022-07-03 | Won |
| 1050 | 882 | 72% | 2022-03-07 | Won |
| 1228 | 1118 | 65% | 2021-10-14 | Won |
| 1228 | 1017 | 77% | 2021-10-14 | Won |
| 1009 | 934 | 61% | 2021-06-30 | Won |
| 1116 | 1266 | 30% | 2021-06-20 | Lost |
| 984 | 1173 | 25% | 2021-06-09 | Lost |
| 939 | 906 | 55% | 2021-05-06 | Lost |
| 913 | 1010 | 36% | 2021-03-24 | Lost |
| 1173 | 984 | 75% | 2021-03-14 | Won |
| 940 | 1053 | 34% | 2021-02-25 | Lost |
| 1038 | 906 | 68% | 2020-07-06 | Won |
| 1199 | 1293 | 37% | 2019-12-04 | Won |
| 971 | 937 | 55% | 2019-11-27 | Lost |
| 1115 | 1199 | 38% | 2019-02-08 | Lost |
| 887 | 869 | 53% | 2018-09-25 | Lost |
| 1059 | 1055 | 51% | 2018-08-03 | Lost |
| 973 | 973 | 50% | 2018-06-30 | Won |
| 1022 | 1021 | 50% | 2018-06-01 | Won |
| 991 | 1142 | 30% | 2018-05-21 | Lost |
| 1142 | 991 | 70% | 2018-05-06 | Won |
| 973 | 1032 | 42% | 2018-02-01 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1025 | 54% | 2018-01-01 | Lost |
| 943 | 748 | 75% | 2017-06-12 | Won |
| 1017 | 959 | 58% | 2017-05-11 | Lost |
| 893 | 1199 | 15% | 2017-04-22 | Lost |
| 956 | 906 | 57% | 2017-01-26 | Won |
| 748 | 877 | 32% | 2016-10-07 | Won |
| 1199 | 960 | 80% | 2016-06-23 | Won |
| 969 | 1069 | 36% | 2015-04-29 | Lost |
| 844 | 1199 | 11% | 2013-11-04 | Lost |
| 1099 | 970 | 68% | 2013-08-17 | Won |
| 900 | 1165 | 18% | 2013-01-27 | Won |
| 901 | 951 | 43% | 2012-09-20 | Won |
| 748 | 1013 | 18% | 2012-09-20 | Won |
| 931 | 1066 | 31% | 2012-07-22 | Won |
| 948 | 987 | 44% | 2011-09-20 | Won |
| 944 | 1094 | 30% | 2011-08-07 | Lost |
| 993 | 1087 | 37% | 2011-02-24 | Lost |
| 963 | 968 | 49% | 2010-12-22 | Won |
| 1098 | 870 | 79% | 2010-10-18 | Won |
| 989 | 889 | 64% | 2010-10-10 | Won |
| 1125 | 960 | 72% | 2009-10-04 | Lost |
| 1086 | 904 | 74% | 2009-10-03 | Won |
| 1058 | 748 | 86% | 2009-05-09 | Won |
| 920 | 748 | 73% | 2007-10-30 | Lost |
| 1060 | 1072 | 48% | 2006-09-09 | Lost |
| 1010 | 943 | 60% | 2006-07-08 | Lost |
| 950 | 1084 | 32% | 2004-11-22 | Won |
| 1189 | 748 | 93% | 2004-08-16 | Won |
| 928 | 928 | 50% | 2004-06-15 | Lost |
| 613 | 1098 | 6% | 2001-11-17 | Won |
| 918 | 1019 | 36% | 2001-05-21 | Lost |
| 1074 | 1075 | 50% | 1999-01-25 | Won |
| 1122 | 1039 | 62% | 1998-12-05 | Won |
| 1056 | 1097 | 44% | 1998-07-22 | Lost |
| 1051 | 1037 | 52% | 1998-04-09 | Won |
| 1041 | 1049 | 49% | 1995-10-01 | Won |
| 1241 | 911 | 87% | 1994-02-03 | Lost |
| 984 | 973 | 52% | 1991-05-01 | Lost |
| 1131 | 1131 | 50% | | Lost |
| 1131 | 1131 | 50% | | Won |
Attacking (37 wins) average ELOs: 1014.6 vs 1008.5 has a 50.88% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).